Hi Graham,
It's a bit of a tricky question to gauge actual barbel populations imo. Catch returns can be misleading due to repeat captures, as can EA fish surveys which often take place in selected areas on a river, usually where there is favourable habitat. The advantage with surveys over anglers catches is that they will sometimes provide evidence of juvenile fish, or not as the case maybe.
Of course an angler will justifiably suspect the worst if his or her catch rate plummets as this has to be evidence that all is not well.
We had a little debate regarding Hants Avon barbel numbers a while back, which seemed to suggest that although the river turns up it's fair share of doubles there was a distinct lack of shoal fish. Encouragingly this pessimism was offset by other forum members who are out on the river regularly and had observed lots of juvenile barbel between the Royalty and Ringwood.
Another issue with populations can be man made obstructions which predominate on rivers such as the Wey. A twelve mile stretch that I've fished for umpteen years has three weirs and three locks dividing the various bits of navigation and natural channel into sections which all tell a different story.
One particular section has witnessed a remarkable decline in all year classes, whilst another has seen the barbel numbers tick along nicely.
I seem to remember similar issues on the Wensum.
Each individual river will tell a different story I guess which is what makes forums such as this invaluable for seeing the big picture.
Depends how far you want to go back in time as well, .. This week I came across an old Leisure Sport rule and guide book from 30 years ago which included the rivers Lea, Gipping, Kennet, Wey, Ouse, Ivel, Trent, St Patrick's Stream, Lodden,Colne and Wensum in it's portfolio. None of the stock info on these venues included a single double, and with some exceptions didn't include barbel at all! I dare say one or two secret squirrels will say that LS management didn't know the half of it but I would expect to see barbel proliferating more nowadays.
I am probably regarded as blinkered by EA fisheries officers, but as far as the Wey is concerned any decline in barbel recruitment and general wellbeing is often mirrored with bad erratic flows due to abstraction and heavy boat traffic on the navigation starving the natural channels of water through increased lock operations . This has lead to gravel siltation and the loss of water crowfoot and the proliferation of the 'orrible silt gathering ribbon weed.
Poaching has definitely had an impact as well, along with the thoughtless removal of overhanging bankside/ marginal trees and shrubs by the EA flood defence contractors. Same old moans from me, same old patronising from those that are charged with looking after it !
I can hear you now, saying .. Just shutup and vote will you !